Sumatra - Emergency Intelligence Briefing
The Global Supply Chain Crisis No One's Reporting
Life and fortunes can hinge a select few things - TIMING and EDGE and INFORMATION.
TIMING is fortuitous.
EDGE is valuable, rewarding and highly contested over.
INFORMATION - depending on quality and scarcity is the ultimate.
Then there are times in history where the confulence of all 3 create an emergent outcome beyond the sum of the parts.
Today is one of those times.
SETTING THE STAGE
Last week two events occurred on opposite sides of the world.
In London they held a theatrical performance about hypotheticals which might happen. Named The Climate Emergency Meeting. A select few discussed what might be coming. The press became saturated with more talk about something not happening. One felt this was a last grasp attempt to save COP and divert attention.
At the same time a real climate, envronmental, social and economic disaster was raging through Northern Aceh and Sumatra. It was only 48 hours later that anyone knew and national power had been taken out.
Since then, this disaster has seen a fraction of the attention of London. Why? Most people do not know where Aceh is. They dont know anyone there. Its hard to relate. Maybe, after months of seeing Gaza the public have been numbed to atrocity.
The reason no one knows Aceh is testament to the lack of transparency in the food chain.
Question - can you name a global Indonesian brand? No. However, no coffee grows in Seattle, Rome or London. Holland and the UAE make the. most revenue from Nutmeg, yet not a single tree grows there.
What has happened in Aceh this week affects EVERY person reading this.
Ah, I have your attention.
London made headlines.
Aceh will make your portfolio bleed in 90 days.
But dont take my word for it, you see for yourself.
Let me show you something. This is the 2025 price chart for Coffee. (not including November).
What happened in Aceh last week fundamentally alters this chart. It leaves the chart.
At this point you can ask Chat, Claude, Perplexity. You will gain nothing. Why? Because AI is limited by the information it is given.
It does not know what it is not given, because we are dealing with analogue human systems now.
WHY WOULD YOU LISTEN TO ME?
I’ve lived in Indonesia for 10 years. I spent 4 years in the affected region. I know the farmers. I know the supply chains. I know what just got cut off. North Sumatra operates under shariah law, it is a remote mountainous area. Globally it is an unknown and misunderstood region. Yet the products of this region move the world.
Due to geography, culture, values and daily life, few visit.
This is a far and distant world. Few go, less know, almost none understand. The global markets will understand when they can connect the dots, and not before. The dots are months away from visibility.
This isn’t a climate briefing.
This is an intelligence briefing.
And I’m limiting access to 40 people.
To understand the magnitude of the situation, So far
300+ dead.
300 missing.
3,213 families evacuated.
Infrastructure destroyed from Medan to Banda Aceh.
But here’s what matters for your portfolio:
Thousands of tons of globally traded commodities; coffee, palm oil, rubber, spices and more are trapped in mountains. Roads collapsed. Bridges gone. Supply chains severed.
S&P 500 companies source these commodities in enormous volumes. None are vertically integrated. All rely on middle men using delapidated infrastructure due to years of extraction and zero investment. The consequence?
In 90-120 days, commodity prices and stock prices will reflect what just happened.
Almost no one is connecting these dots yet.
When the dots appear, there will be a small fe left to see them.
THE PRODUCT
This isn’t analysis you can buy from Bloomberg or McKinsey.
This is proprietary intelligence from ground zero.
Supplied in real time from inside the situation from all levels.
I have an extensive decentralised network of nodes relaying me information which never leaves the village.
The theta on this information is moving at light speed.
We start immediately.
HOW THIS WORKS
There are 4 tiers of access. All detailed below.
All tiers receive the intelligence briefing.
MONDAY 1ST DEC, 2025
A 45-minute intelligence briefing that Wall Street doesn’t have access to.
